It’s been a blissful few months as COVIDF has retreated into the background, likely to remain with us forever but hopefully as a nuisance not the million+ killer it was for the last couple of years.

So, two new items.

First, in what can only be described as a huge waste of taxpayer money, a very large and very scientific study found ivermectin does not reduce COVID symptoms. 

Shocking, right?

Details…

• double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled platform trial
• 1206 US adults with COVID-19
• median time to sustained recovery was 11 days in the ivermectin group and 11 days in the placebo group.

Hucksters, charlatans, former US presidents and other of the willfully-ignorant will undoubtedly parse, lie, misstate, ignore, or otherwise continue to claim that a veterinary medicine for treating bacterial infections is actually a cure for a viral infection.

to quote a T-shirt recently spotted…

Lab leak, nefarious plot, or animal-to-human transmission?

Last week the new broke that the US Department of Energy thinks  – albeit with “low confidence” – that COVID leaked out of a Chinese lab.

This is sort of like saying “Tom Brady is going to sign with the Yankees as a pitcher…heard this from a guy I know who was on a plane sitting next to a woman who looked like a reporter and saw her writing that Brady’s heading to spring training in Tampa…”

This is NOT to disparage the scientists at DoE, rather to remedy what seems to be a serious lack of reading ability on the part of too many who can’t seem to grasp – or rather refuse to accept – that things are rarely black-and-white, or as friend and colleague Pier Rousmaniere notes in his signature line;

Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd. – Voltaire

[Unless, of course, one has completed a rigorous 1200 person RDB – CT study]

Nine Federal intelligence agencies have completed their research on the “where did COVID come from?” question…Two of those concluded a likely lab leak, five said natural causes and two said they don’t know.

Given the really lousy record these state-of-the-art labs have when it come to keeping deadly viruses contained, it is certainly possible it leaked.

Reality is  – it is unlikely we will ever know – for certain.

What does this mean for you?

Read carefully before posting.

Last time we talked tanks…

This time we’ll focus on Russia’s winter offensive. If you don’t have time, just skip to the takeaways at the bottom of this post.

credit Institute for the Study of War; I highly recommend ISW’s briefings

Quick take – the offensive isn’t going well. While Russia is making advances, they are measured in meters not miles, and are coming at horrendous cost in dead, injured, and captured Russian troops. The Russians did capture Soledar and have make barely measurable progress around Bakhmut and a couple other places but none of those are – in any way – changing the reality on the ground.

Which is Russia is screwed.

As we discussed in WOT #10, you need troops and equipment to fight a war.

The Russians lost a huge amount of equipment last year – hundreds of tanks, armored fighting vehicles, cannons, trucks, trains – equipment it cannot readily replace, if at all. If you want to attack, as Russia is trying to do in its winter offensive, you really need armored vehicles to penetrate opponents’ lines and break out into less well-defended territory. Dug-in defenses  – usually several lines deep – are very, very hard to defeat unless you can blow a really big hole in them and exploit the opening with fast-moving vehicles.

So, in what is eerily reminiscent of World War One, Putin the Butcher is throwing thousands of untrained men at Ukraine’s front lines. (If you want a taste of that, I highly recommend the book and film “All Quiet on the Western Front“.) Trigger alert – it is really awful and disturbing, and the German general is a bald version of Putin the Butcher.

PtB’s tactics are pretty awful…

• untrained ex-prisoners and recruits from Russia’s far east are forced to attack Ukrainians positions.
• they are slaughtered – because they have no idea what they are doing, have minimal weapons and ammunition, and are going up against entrenched, battle-hardened and well-supplied Ukrainians, but
• in so doing, the Ukrainians reveal their positions, which are then bombarded with rockets and artillery and attacked by much more capable Russian troops.

That is NOT to say Russia’s “real” soldiers are invulnerable. Reports from the front indicate Putin’s “elite” units lost dozens of armored vehicles and hundreds of soldiers over the last few days…equipment and men which Russia cannot afford to lose.

Putin the Butcher has a seemingly inexhaustible supply of poor young men but they are a very poor substitute for modern military vehicles and artillery.

Takeaways

While others much more knowledgeable than I see this war grinding on for years, I’m hard pressed to agree.

Russia:

• cannot replace most lost equipment,
• is losing more and more of its irreplaceable, experienced and well-trained troops,
• has not demonstrated its generals have any idea what to do,
• is facing an increasingly better-equipped and far more motivated enemy, and
• is losing the information and intel dimensions.

Like we saw late last spring, all is well until it is not, and then it goes really, really badly for Putin the Butcher.

all previous posts on this topic are here.